Newsletter 04/07/2025

Newsletter 04/07/2025 Sponsored by SpeedTrader

Quote of the day:"The World is a very malleable place. If you know what you want, and you go for it with maximum energy and drive and passion, the world will often reconfigure itself around you much more quickly and easily than you would think." -Marc Andessen 


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Good Morning!!!

Friday I was all over the map. I had positions short the market, short some small caps, I bounced the market. I was flying around. Need to refocus this week.

I wish the market was not bouncing into open as I believe we could have had a wonderful trade similar to the one below but could have had a real bounce back day. Bouncing back into open almost makes me fearful this is an artificial bounce to stop liquidation. I still think barring any terrible headlines we can bounce today but it is definitely not as clean of a setup as I wanted.

Some Notes:

  • I think data is extremely helpful as I myself use it and talked about it. That being said the level of data being thrown around is very elementary and I think has a large dose of copium involved.

    • Yes - every time the market has gone down (even 1%) or VIX has spiked it has been a “buyable dip” if your time horizon was long enough as the market has always made a new high.

    • The S&P was not until well after the great depression lol.

  • Vix is at 60. Trade accordingly - You can be right and still be wrong.

  • I will most likely try to bounce the market.

  • From a macro perspective we are in uncharted territory. If we do not bounce today we are really in the deep end. Most examples I have seen given are from dotcom bubble and GFC. I believe the market landscape has totally changes since then which goes back to I think data especially elementary only takes you so far in this instance.

  • Right before 9 am we received word that the EU is ready to negotiate with US on tariffs. Outside of china this is the “big one”. We will see if this is able to bounce us.

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SPY – large range. Sure a lot of randomness will take place

SPY No interest: 487.68 - 501.01

Above Targets: First target is 502.6 Second target is 506.1 Third target is 509.24 Reach Target is 514.34

Below Targets: First target is 484.55 second target is 479.9 third target is 477.6 Reach Target is 474.9

Small Caps: Not the focus today.

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GOOD LUCK AND BE SAFE

H.H

“Hazard Zet Forward”

PLEASE READ: I am doing this because I love the community and enjoy talking about stocks. I have a right to talk about stocks and I’m going to do just that. Nothing is advice. I am not a financial advisor. This is not advice (seriously, i mean it). I am not a pro. I could be buying or selling any ticker mentioned at any time. One more time - I could be buying or selling any ticker mentioned at any time. I will do what I want and I want you to do what YOU want. Any money made / lost is the result of your personal decision - “Daily Newsletter” “Hugh henne” “Mitch Hennessey” or anyone / anything connected to any of those are not liable.